Metro Vancouver — 2025 Year in Review

The Year in One Sentence

Metro Vancouver housing in 2025 was a market of two speeds: detached inventory accumulated while the condo floor held, and the gap between buyer expectations and seller pricing defined most of the year’s negotiation dynamics.

What Actually Happened

Rate relief arrived in 2025, but it arrived unevenly. The Bank of Canada cut through mid-year, and the fixed-rate market began to reflect those moves in the second half. Buyers who had been waiting for rates to fall found that when rates actually moved, prices did not immediately follow — sellers who had held through 2024 entered spring 2025 with pricing expectations built on the last cycle.

The result was a split: listings sat longer in Q1 and Q2 before some sellers recalibrated. By Q3 and Q4, a segment of the market found equilibrium. Days-on-market compressed modestly in the $700K–$1.1M condo band. The detached market took longer to adjust, particularly at the $2M+ tier where buyer pools are smaller and patience is the primary negotiating tool.

Total transaction volume for 2025 came in below the 10-year average. That is not the same as saying the market was distressed. It means a large segment of inventory never cleared — sellers who could wait, waited. The transactions that did occur skewed toward properties that were either correctly priced at entry or that absorbed a price reduction early enough to catch a qualified buyer before they committed elsewhere.

The Condo Market: Resilience With Nuance

The condo segment held its floor through 2025, but “held” is not the same as “performed.” The 2022–2023 pre-sale pipeline completed significant inventory in 2025, particularly in Burnaby, Surrey, and select East Vancouver corridors. New supply hit a market that was not fully ready to absorb it at the prices investors had modelled.

Assignments at or below assignment price appeared more frequently in Q3 and Q4 as investors who could not hold to completion weighed their options. Resale units in the same buildings sometimes traded at discounts to the original pre-sale pricing when completed units arrived simultaneously in the same strata complex.

The resilience story is real but concentrated: sub-$900K units near Expo and Millennium Line stations with efficient floor plans and manageable strata fees absorbed well. Larger condos with high fees or in buildings with deferred maintenance saw more days on market and more buyer negotiation on price.

The Detached Market: Supply Returned

Detached inventory in Metro Vancouver grew materially through 2025. The increase was most visible in the $1.8M–$3M tier — the band where buyers are most mortgage-sensitive even when they appear affluent on paper. Sellers in this range often carry significant existing equity, which can create a stubborn floor, but the buyer pool is narrow enough that a few months of accumulation changes negotiating dynamics noticeably.

Days on market for detached listings climbed from the low-20s in Q4 2024 to the mid-30s by Q4 2025 across most Metro Vancouver submarkets. Burnaby Heights and the North Shore continued to show relative strength because their walkability, views, and school access keep demand more consistent. Burke Mountain and the outer Fraser Valley saw more pronounced softening.

What to Carry Into 2026

The structural supply picture in Metro Vancouver has not changed. Purpose-built rental vacancy is tight. Net migration into BC continues. Household formation and affordability pressure keep demand visible even when transaction volume is subdued.

The 2026 risk to watch is supply timing on the presale completion side. Projects that launched in 2023 at peak pricing are completing into a resale market that has recalibrated. That gap will surface in strata corporations, in assignment markets, and in competition between resale units and newly completed product competing for the same buyer.

The opportunity in 2026 is in the segment that underperformed the headlines in 2025: well-located condos in established nodes where the supply cycle is behind and the rental floor is visible. That is not a universal call — it requires building-level diligence — but the framework holds for buyers who do the work.

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HOMS Intelligence estimates. Derived from public MLS® data, CMHC releases, and aggregate market indicators. Not property-specific valuation evidence. Real estate services by Moji Dargahi, licensed REALTOR® with Royal Pacific Realty Corp.